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USD/INR forecast: Indian rupee outlook after the RBI interventions
Feb 14, 2025
The USD/INR exchange rate has retreated this week, helped by the ongoing interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It also retreated after Narendra Modi met with Donald Trump at the White House. It dropped to a low of 86.36, down by almost 2% from its highest level this year.
RBI $11 billion intervention
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The main catalyst for the USD/INR exchange rate was the ongoing interventions by the RBI. According to Reuters, the bank has pumped over $11 billion in liquidity in the market to reduce the rupees crash. DBS analysts estimate that the figure was about $10 billion.
Central banks have multiple ways to intervene and prevent a currency’s freefall. In RBI’s case, it increased the supply of US dollars, a move that has strengthened the local currency. It can do that because it has one of the highest foreign reserves, which stands at $650 billion.
The USD/INR pair also retreated after Narendra Modi traveled to the United States, where he met with Donald Trump. His main goal was to improve the trade relations of the two countries and avoid tariffs. The two leaders agreed to double the bilateral trade between the two countries, with the US selling F-35 fighter jets.
The announcement came a few hours after Donald Trump hinted that the US would deliver reciprocal tariffs, where it charges countries the same tariffs that other countries charge.
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